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Business analysis · Data modelling · Analytics

Data. Forecast.
Decision.

Keo Collective conducts comprehensive business analysis in line with client requirements, then builds purpose-built systems and software that deliver on outcomes. Dedicated to professional services, engineering and manufacturing.

Professional servicesEngineeringManufacturing
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01 — Purpose

Why Keo Collective exists

Every product and every engagement is one step in the same chain. Nothing is built that does not serve it.

STEP 01

Trustworthy data

Purpose-built SaaS

Data captured once, at the point of work, by software designed for that work. No re-keying, no spreadsheets, no reconstruction after the fact. The record is the operation.

STEP 02

A probability or a forecast

Modelling and analytics

Keo, our own AI, models the captured data — descriptive measures first, then predictive: the likelihood of each outcome, the expected value, the range around it and the confidence in it.

STEP 03

Someone who can act

Decision delivery

The forecast is placed in the tool, the screen and the moment where the decision is made — by a person with the authority to change what happens next.

Analysis that stops at a report has not finished. The work is complete when a decision has been made on it.

We target the integrated management system at Level 1 of the workflow hierarchy — with Level 0 being laws, regulations, licensing and master client/supplier contract requirements.

02 — Keo

Keo, the intelligence behind the team

Keo is the name of the group and the name of the model. Keep Everything Organised.

Keo is our own AI — trained specifically on the data behind our products and the decisions made on it, and still learning from every dataset it works on.

Keo does the modelling. Our analysts check it. Your people make the call.

Keo
Models the data. Writes the reasoning.
Our team
Builds the products. Verifies the output.
Your people
Decide, and act.

03 — Engagement

Business analysis, to a recognised standard

Every engagement is run to the IIBA® Business Analysis Standard as a minimum. The thirty tasks it sets out sit inside seven stages.

Before we start

Plan

The analysis approach, who decides what, and how every record, requirement and decision is kept.

Plan the approach · Governance · Information management

Stage 01

Discover

The right people identified and engaged. The need drawn out in working sessions, then confirmed in writing.

Stakeholder engagement · Elicitation · Collaboration

Stage 02

Assess

The business as it runs today — each area, each data source, and the risks around the change.

Current state · Risks

Stage 03

Define

The future state agreed. Requirements specified, prioritised, verified, validated and approved, with the measures that will prove them.

Future state · Requirements life cycle · Change control · Measures

Stage 04

Track

Performance measured from agreed data, at the point of work, against the targets set in Define.

Solution performance

Stage 05

Model

Design options built and tested with the method that fits the decision, and the potential value of each stated.

Design options · Potential value · Analytical methods

Stage 06

Decide

A recommendation, the change strategy to deliver it, and the actions and communications that go with it.

Change strategy · Communication · Recommended actions

Stage 07

Review

Results analysed against the forecast. Limits of the solution and the organisation assessed, and our own delivery improved.

Performance analysis · Solution and enterprise limitations · Continuous improvement

Need

The problem or opportunity.

Change

What transforms in response.

Solution

How the need is met.

Stakeholder

Everyone the change touches.

Value

What it is worth to them.

Context

The circumstances around it.

30 tasks6 knowledge areas6 core conceptsTraced and evidenced for every engagement

IIBA® is a registered trademark of the International Institute of Business Analysis. Keo Collective is independent of IIBA.

04 — Practice

Three layers of analytics

All three run on the same governed data model. Each layer answers a different question.

Business Intelligence

Descriptive

What happened. How.

Reporting, dashboards and the measures beneath them. The business as it is recorded — by function, period, customer, job, machine, campaign.

  • Governed KPI definitions
  • Operational and financial reporting
  • Dimensional data modelling
  • Variance to target and to plan
  • Cohort and segment analysis

Business Analytics

Predictive

What is likely. How likely.

Statistical and machine-learning models applied to the same data to weigh each outcome — demand, throughput, conversion, margin, risk — as a probability with a range.

  • Time-series forecasting
  • Regression and classification
  • Probability and confidence intervals
  • Anomaly and drift detection
  • Survival and churn modelling

Decision Analytics

Prescriptive

What to do. What it costs.

The forecast turned into a choice: scenarios compared, constraints applied, the expected value of each option stated so the decision can be made and defended.

  • Scenario and sensitivity analysis
  • Monte Carlo simulation
  • Capacity and schedule optimisation
  • Resource allocation
  • Threshold and alert design

05 — Methods

Modelling and analytical methods

Chosen per problem. The method is selected for the decision it has to support, not the other way round. Select a method to see a worked example.

Dimensional modelling

Facts and dimensions structured so every metric has one definition and one source.

Metrics layer

KPIs defined once, in code, and reused by every report and model.

Time-series forecasting

Trend, seasonality and cycle decomposed; ARIMA, exponential smoothing, gradient boosting.

Regression

Linear, logistic and regularised models for drivers, elasticities and expected values.

Classification

Probability that a lead converts, a job runs late, a part fails inspection.

Probabilistic forecasting

Prediction intervals and quantiles, not point estimates alone.

Monte Carlo simulation

Thousands of runs across uncertain inputs to produce a distribution of outcomes.

Scenario analysis

Base, upside and downside cases with the assumptions that separate them.

Anomaly detection

Statistical control limits and model residuals to flag what does not fit.

Optimisation

Linear and constraint programming for schedules, capacity and allocation.

Survival analysis

Time-to-event models for churn, equipment life and job duration.

Cohort analysis

Behaviour tracked by the period a customer, job or campaign started.

Statistical process control

Control charts on cycle time, yield and throughput.

Attribution modelling

Marketing spend and channels weighed against pipeline and revenue.

Data quality scoring

Completeness, consistency and timeliness measured before anything is modelled.

Model monitoring

Forecast accuracy tracked against actuals; models retrained when drift appears.

06 — Reports

Selected data reports

Recent analysis delivered for clients. Every engagement is confidential, so each report is shown by industry only.

Education · Independent school

Finance and workforce ledger

Can the school fund a competitive pay offer, and what would it cost over the next five years?

11years of income and spend2pay scenarios5year forecast
  • Published reports reconciled line by line against audited accounts
  • Capital build, borrowing and repayment traced year by year
  • Pay scales benchmarked against the government sector, including take-home pay
  • Re-runnable forecast under the client's own wage, fee and CPI assumptions
Dimensional modellingData quality scoringScenario analysisTime-series forecasting

Residential construction · Volume home builder

Regional sales business plan

What should a regional sales team back, fix and measure over the next twelve months?

12months of CRM data8focus areas12month roadmap
  • Deposits analysed by brand, design and consultant
  • Monthly enquiry and conversion trends separated
  • Sales budget, display network and team targets set
  • Weekly and monthly data flags to catch performance gaps early
Metrics layerAttribution modellingTime-series forecastingAnomaly detection

Residential construction · Volume home builder

New-market entry case

Should the business open in a new growth corridor, and where should its displays go?

7worked packages3staged displays4quarter roadmap
  • Completed-home sale prices and land cost per m² from official and market sources
  • New build compared against established homes, package by package
  • Buyer income tested against borrowing capacity
  • Display sites shortlisted, staged and gated on evidence, with risks and mitigations
Dimensional modellingScenario analysisOptimisation

Manufacturing · Precision engineering

Customer, supplier and growth review

Which customers and suppliers need a conversation now, and where does new work come from?

5years of invoices20key accounts91new targets
  • Top customers compared month by month, year on year
  • Single points of failure found in the supply chain
  • Commercial case for quality certification tested
  • Four new markets researched, qualified and prioritised
Time-series forecastingAnomaly detectionClassification

Client names, figures and locations withheld. Full reports are not published.

07 — Products

Purpose-built software

Each product captures trustworthy data for one kind of work and carries its own intelligence layer. All designed, engineered, hosted and supported in-house.

08 — Data

The data foundation

A forecast is only as good as the data under it. Keo Collective owns the capture, the storage and the model, so the chain from record to decision is unbroken.

Every product writes to a governed data model with defined entities, keys and metrics. The same definition of throughput, margin or conversion is used in the dashboard, the forecast and the alert.

Data quality is measured, not assumed. Completeness, consistency and timeliness are scored on every dataset before it is modelled, and model accuracy is tracked against actuals after it is deployed.

Capture
Purpose-built applications at the point of work
Storage
Governed relational and key-value stores, one model per domain
Metrics
Defined once, versioned, reused everywhere
Modelling
Keo — descriptive, predictive and prescriptive on the same dataset
Delivery
Inside the application, on the screen where the decision is made
Monitoring
Forecast accuracy and data quality tracked continuously
Forecast fan · 0%
Observed Forecast · simulated paths · mean

09 — Contact

Start with the decision

Select the product or practice area it concerns. Enquiries are answered within one business day.

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